Adjusting to the energy transition: Training and transfers in coal country

Between 2011 and 2016, coal mining employment declined by over 50 percent in Appalachia, producing sharp earnings and employment losses in coal-dependent communities. Whether these disruptions reflect temporary adjustment costs or signal more persistent decline depends in part on the extent and nature of local investment responses. This paper leverages differential Commuting Zone (CZ) exposure to coal’s decline to estimate its impact on government transfers and postsecondary training investments in Appalachia. I find that exposed CZs experienced a sizable and sustained rise in per capita transfer receipts, but no statistically detectable change in postsecondary awards, enrollment, or institutional finances. The absence of a training response persists when restricting to shorter-term programs at locally serving institutions and contrasts with documented effects in other settings. Given the central role of human capital in regional adjustment, these findings indicate that distressed regions affected by the transition away from legacy energy sectors may face greater challenges in adapting to structural change absent expanded educational investments.