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Trade-Induced Displacements and Local Labor Market Adjustments in the US

In: Trade and Labor Markets

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  • Illenin Kondo

Abstract

Administrative data from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program reveal that, across locations, one extra TAA trade-displaced worker is associated with the overall employment falling by about two workers amidst muted geographic mobility. This correlation is robust to local import penetration proxies and is corroborated using differences in the exposure of commuting zones to the plausibly exogenous normalization of U.S. trade relations with China in 2000. A Ricardian trade model with endogenous variable markups arising from head-to-head foreign competition can rationalize such a correlation. Following a trade liberalization shock, employment and earnings collapse in the less productive locations since they endogenously exhibit both higher trade-induced job losses and lower job creation, as in the data. When migration is muted in response to the trade shock, inequality increases across locations and induces transitional transfers towards decaying locations, even as employment and welfare rise in the aggregate.
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Suggested Citation

  • Illenin Kondo, 2017. "Trade-Induced Displacements and Local Labor Market Adjustments in the US," NBER Chapters, in: Trade and Labor Markets, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14163
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    Cited by:

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    3. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    4. Daniel R. Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2020. "On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs," Working Papers 20-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Justin Barnette & Jooyoun Park, 2021. "Skill Overshooting in Job Training With the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(2), pages 141-156, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

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