IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedmoi/99165.html

Economic Diversity and the Resilience of Cities

Author

Abstract

We show how local worker flow adjustment margins yield a theory-consistent sufficient statistic approximating the welfare effects of local shocks. Furthermore, we isolate a city’s insurance value as this approximation’s second-order term. Leveraging rich labor flows data across occupations, industries, and cities in France, we estimate spatial and non-spatial flows responses to local labor demand shocks. Less economically diverse French cities experience deeper contractions in gross outflows following negative shocks. In contrast, more economic concentration begets a modestly larger increase in gross worker flows following positive shocks. Altogether, we uncover a sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois de Soyres & Simon Fuchs & Illenin O. Kondo & Helene Maghin, 2024. "Economic Diversity and the Resilience of Cities," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 106, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99165
    DOI: 10.21034/iwp.106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/working-papers-institute/iwp106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21034/iwp.106?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Fuchs, 2021. "Spoils of War: Trade Shocks and Segmented Labor Markets in Spain during WWI," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    4. Martin Beraja, 2023. "A Semistructural Methodology for Policy Counterfactuals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(1), pages 190-201.
    5. Fosgerau, Mogens & Melo, Emerson & Shum, Matthew & Sørensen, Jesper R.-V., 2021. "Some remarks on CCP-based estimators of dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    8. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    9. David Atkin & Benjamin Faber & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, 2018. "Retail Globalization and Household Welfare: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-73.
    10. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    11. Enrico Moretti & Moises Yi, 2024. "Size Matters: Matching Externalities and the Advantages of Large Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 32250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. David R Baqaee & Ariel Burstein, 2023. "Welfare and Output With Income Effects and Taste Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 769-834.
    13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    14. Eric Donald & Masao Fukui & Yuhei Miyauchi, 2025. "Unpacking Aggregate Welfare in a Spatial Economy," NBER Working Papers 34075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    17. Ryan Kim & Jonathan Vogel & Moises Yi, 2020. "Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets)," NBER Working Papers 27133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 243-257, May.
    19. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2023. "Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 385-424, March.
    20. Porto, Guido G., 2006. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
    21. Ferdinando Monte & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3855-3890, December.
    22. Kondo, Illenin O., 2018. "Trade-induced displacements and local labor market adjustments in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 180-202.
    23. Ioana Marinescu & Roland Rathelot, 2018. "Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 42-70, July.
    24. Khai Xiang Chiong & Alfred Galichon & Matt Shum, 2016. "Duality in dynamic discrete‐choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(1), pages 83-115, March.
    25. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
    26. Sharon Traiberman, 2019. "Occupations and Import Competition: Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4260-4301, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Bocquet, L., 2024. "The Network Origin of Slow Labour Reallocation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2465, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. repec:cam:camjip:2427 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "Globalization and Inequality in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 16363, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Artuc, Erhan & Porto, Guido & Rijkers, Bob, 2019. "Trading off the income gains and the inequality costs of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-45.
    6. Leonard Bocquet, 2022. "The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation," Working Papers halshs-03703862, HAL.
    7. Ning Jia & Raven Molloy & Christopher Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2023. "The Economics of Internal Migration: Advances and Policy Questions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 144-180, March.
    8. Leonard Bocquet, 2022. "The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation," PSE Working Papers halshs-03703862, HAL.
    9. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2023. "Heterogeneous Agents Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium," Working Papers 2023-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Brian Greaney, 2024. "The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings," Working Papers 2024-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 25 Sep 2025.
    12. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Kondo, Illenin O. & Li, Yao Amber & Qian, Wei, 2024. "Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Erhan Artuc & Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2022. "Patterns of Labour Market Adjustment to Trade Shocks with Imperfect Capital Mobility," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2048-2074.
    16. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2021. "Linear IV regression estimators for structural dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 778-804.
    17. Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Lee, Eunhee, 2025. "Trade, jobs, and worker welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Kondo, Illenin O., 2018. "Trade-induced displacements and local labor market adjustments in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 180-202.
    19. Arni, Patrick & Egger, Peter & Erhardt, Katharina & Gubler, Matthias & Sauré, Philip, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 16895, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    21. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2022. "Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 22-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kate Hansel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.