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The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG

Listed author(s):
  • Douglas L. Campbell

    ()

    (New Economic School (NES))

  • Lester Lusher

    ()

    (UC Davis)

We study the impact of large real exchange rate shocks on workers in sectors initially more exposed to international trade using the Current Population Survey’s (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Group (MORG) from 1979 to 2010 combined with new annual measures of imported inputs, a proxy for offshoring. We find that in periods when US relative prices are high, and imports surge relative to exports, workers in sectors with greater initial exposure to international trade were more likely to be unemployed or exit the labor force a year later, but did not experience significant declines in wages conditional on being employed. Contrary to the usual narrative, we find negative wage effects for higher-wage, but not lower-wage workers, particularly for those who are lesseducated.

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Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0223.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0223
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  1. Campbell, Douglas L & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2014. "Through the Looking Glass: A WARPed View of Real Exchange Rate History," MPRA Paper 55870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
  4. Edward E. Leamer, 1994. "Trade, Wages and Revolving Door Ideas," NBER Working Papers 4716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2008. "Blue-Collar Blues: Is Trade to Blame for Rising US Income Inequality?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa85, 03.
  6. Douglas L. Campbell, 2015. "Measurement Matters: Productivity-Adjusted Weighted Average Relative Price Indices," Working Papers w0216, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 153-222 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799, October.
  9. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
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