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The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas L. Campbell

    () (New Economic School (NES))

  • Lester Lusher

    () (UC Davis)

Abstract

We study the impact of large real exchange rate shocks on workers in sectors initially more exposed to international trade using the Current Population Survey’s (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Group (MORG) from 1979 to 2010 combined with new annual measures of imported inputs, a proxy for offshoring. We find that in periods when US relative prices are high, and imports surge relative to exports, workers in sectors with greater initial exposure to international trade were more likely to be unemployed or exit the labor force a year later, but did not experience significant declines in wages conditional on being employed. Contrary to the usual narrative, we find negative wage effects for higher-wage, but not lower-wage workers, particularly for those who are lesseducated.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas L. Campbell & Lester Lusher, 2018. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Manufacturing Workers: An Autopsy from the MORG," Working Papers w0223, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0223
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    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP223.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, Douglas L., 2016. "Measurement matters: Productivity-adjusted weighted average relative price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
    2. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799, October.
    3. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2008. "Blue-Collar Blues: Is Trade to Blame for Rising US Income Inequality?," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa85, January.
    4. Campbell, Douglas L & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2014. "Through the Looking Glass: A WARPed View of Real Exchange Rate History," MPRA Paper 55870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    6. Edward E. Leamer, 1994. "Trade, Wages and Revolving Door Ideas," NBER Working Papers 4716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 153-222 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Douglas L. Campbell & Lester Lusher, 2016. "Trade Shocks, Taxes, and Inequality," Working Papers w0220, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    10. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Ben Bernanke, in Denial? "When Growth is Not Enough"
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-07-09 13:14:00
    2. Is US Manufacturing Really Great Again?
      by Doug Campbell in Douglas L. Campbell on 2017-05-09 23:36:00

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rates; Labor Market Impact of Trade Shocks; Inequality; American Manufacturing;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N60 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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