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On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

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Abstract

We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the US and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy households experience a welfare gain.

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  • Daniel R. Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2020. "On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs," Working Papers 20-18R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 13 Feb 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:88201
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202018r2
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    1. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    2. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2019. "Financial Development and Trade Liberalization," 2019 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2021. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to US Tariff Changes?," Working Papers 2021-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Mar 2023.
    4. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    6. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2023. "No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, And Financial Development," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 809-836, May.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2024. "The effect of economic uncertainty on remittance flows from developed countries," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 267-280, June.
    8. Chepeliev, Maksym & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Seara e Pereira, Maria Filipa & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2025. "Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 30-48.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tariffs; consumption; taxation; inequality; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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