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On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

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Abstract

We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the US and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1 percent reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, while only wealthy households experience a welfare gain.

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  • Daniel R. Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2020. "On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs," Working Papers 20-18R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 13 Feb 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:88201
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202018r2
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    Cited by:

    1. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2019. "Financial Development and Trade Liberalization," 2019 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carroll, Daniel R. & Hur, Sewon, 2020. "On the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Sewon Hur, 2020. "The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 400, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 12 May 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tariffs; consumption; taxation; inequality; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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