IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v107y2017i10p2908-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro
  • Brian K. Kovak

Abstract

We study the evolution of trade liberalization's effects on Brazilian local labor markets. Regions facing larger tariff cuts experienced prolonged declines in formal sector employment and earnings relative to other regions. The impact of tariff changes on regional earnings 20 years after liberalization was three times the effect after 10 years. These increasing effects on regional earnings are inconsistent with conventional spatial equilibrium models, which predict declining effects due to spatial arbitrage. We investigate potential mechanisms, finding empirical support for a mechanism involving imperfect interregional labor mobility and dynamics in labor demand, driven by slow capital adjustment and agglomeration economies. This mechanism gradually amplifies the effects of liberalization, explaining the slow adjustment path of regional earnings and quantitatively accounting for the magnitude of the long-run effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:10:p:2908-46
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20161214
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=5513
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=G4Sd4o8M6ID8XCdb_MpT3EFobyw7vpP6
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=eBjg2ihnlJiX5PbCjWd7ashuUaN0NdBE
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neri, Marcelo Côrtes & Moura, Rodrigo Leandro de, 2005. "La institucionalidad del salario mínimo en Brasil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 607, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Gonzaga, Gustavo & Menezes Filho, Naercio & Terra, Cristina, 2006. "Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 345-367, March.
    3. Peter Arcidiacono & Gigi Foster & Natalie Goodpaster & Josh Kinsler, 2012. "Estimating spillovers using panel data, with an application to the classroom," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 421-470, November.
    4. Eric V. Edmonds & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Trade Adjustment and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Indian Tariff Reform," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 42-75, October.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    6. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    7. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
    8. Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
    9. Jorge Saba Arbache & Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Wages in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 73-96, February.
    10. Claire H. Hollweg & Daniel Lederman & Diego Rojas & Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer, 2014. "Sticky Feet : How Labor Market Frictions Shape the Impact of International Trade on Jobs and Wages," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18777.
    11. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    12. Costas Meghir & Renata Narita & Jean-Marc Robin, 2015. "Wages and Informality in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    13. Petia Topalova, 2010. "Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence on Poverty from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-41, October.
    14. Ines Helm, 2020. "National Industry Trade Shocks, Local Labour Markets, and Agglomeration Spillovers," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1399-1431.
    15. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 2004. "The Political Economy of High Protection in Brazil before 1987," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9375, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    18. Petia Topalova, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Indian Districts," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 291-336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V., 2011. "Does formality improve micro-firm performance? Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 262-276, March.
    20. repec:clu:wpaper:0708-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Hasan, Rana & Mitra, Devashish & Ranjan, Priya & Ahsan, Reshad N., 2012. "Trade liberalization and unemployment: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 269-280.
    22. Enrico Moretti, 2013. "Real Wage Inequality," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 65-103, January.
    23. Hirata, Guilherme & Soares, Rodrigo R., 2016. "Competition and the Racial Wage Gap: Testing Becker's Model of Employer Discrimination," IZA Discussion Papers 9764, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    25. Hasan, Rana & Mitra, Devashish & Ural, Beyza P., 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Labor-Market Institutions, and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Indian States," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 71-122.
    26. De Paiva Abreu, Marcelo, 2011. "The Political Economy of High Protection in Brazil before 1987," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2641, Inter-American Development Bank.
    27. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 2-18, September.
    28. Enrico Moretti, 2014. "Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 275-331.
    29. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2007. "Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3cm38535, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    30. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    31. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    32. Elhanan Helpman & Oleg Itskhoki & Marc-Andreas Muendler & Stephen J. Redding, 2017. "Trade and Inequality: From Theory to Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 357-405.
    33. Rafael Dix‐Carneiro, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 825-885, May.
    34. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    35. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
    36. Rafael Lopes de Melo, 2018. "Firm Wage Differentials and Labor Market Sorting: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 313-346.
    37. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro & Lorenzo Caliendo, 2015. "The Impact of Trade on Labor Market Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1532, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    38. Paz, Lourenço S., 2014. "The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: A theoretical and empirical evaluation of the Brazilian case," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 330-348.
    39. Brian K. Kovak, 2013. "Regional Effects of Trade Reform: What Is the Correct Measure of Liberalization?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1960-1976, August.
    40. Koujianou Goldberg, Pinelopi & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "The response of the informal sector to trade liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 463-496, December.
    41. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    42. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 275-363.
    43. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    44. Hanlon, W. Walker & Miscio, Antonio, 2017. "Agglomeration: A long-run panel data approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-14.
    45. Brian, McCaig, 2011. "Exporting out of poverty: Provincial poverty in Vietnam and U.S. market access," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 102-113, September.
    46. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2016. "Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 728-741, October.
    47. Maurice Kugler & Eric Verhoogen, 2012. "Prices, Plant Size, and Product Quality," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 307-339.
    48. Krishna, Pravin & Poole, Jennifer P. & Senses, Mine Zeynep, 2014. "Wage Effects of Trade Reform with Endogenous Worker Mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 239-252.
    49. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, December.
    50. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    51. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou & Pavcnik, Nina, 2005. "Trade, wages, and the political economy of trade protection: evidence from the Colombian trade reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 75-105, May.
    52. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October.
    53. Schor, Adriana, 2004. "Heterogeneous productivity response to tariff reduction. Evidence from Brazilian manufacturing firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 373-396, December.
    54. Adriana Schor, 2004. "Heterogeneous Productivity Response to Tariff Reduction: Evidence from Brazilian Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 10544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Sharon Traiberman, 2017. "Occupations and Import Competition," 2017 Meeting Papers 1237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    56. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 551-557, May.
    57. repec:oup:restud:v:84:y::i:1:p:357-405. is not listed on IDEAS
    58. Costas Meghir & Renata Narita & Jean-Marc Robin, 2015. "Wages and Informality in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-03587627, HAL.
    59. Nina Pavcnik & Andreas Blom & Pinelopi Goldberg & Norbert Schady, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Industry Wage Structure: Evidence from Brazil," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(3), pages 319-344.
    60. Melo, Patricia C. & Graham, Daniel J. & Noland, Robert B., 2009. "A meta-analysis of estimates of urban agglomeration economies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 332-342, May.
    61. Ferdinando Monte, 2016. "The Local Incidence of Trade Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 1682, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    62. Harrison, Ann (ed.), 2007. "Globalization and Poverty," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226318004, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    2. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2015. "Trade Reform and Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data," NBER Working Papers 20908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Connolly, Laura, 2022. "The effects of a trade shock on gender-specific labor market outcomes in Brazil," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Nina Pavcnik, 2017. "The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 23878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    6. Goldberg, Pinelopi & Pavcnik, Nina, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Margaret S. McMillan & Brian McCaig, 2019. "Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Adjustment in Botswana," NBER Working Papers 26326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sarra Ben Yahmed & Pamela Bombarda, 2020. "Gender, Informal Employment and Trade Liberalization in Mexico," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(2), pages 259-283.
    9. Dai, Mi & Huang, Wei & Zhang, Yifan, 2021. "How do households adjust to tariff liberalization? Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    10. L. Alan Winters & Antonio Martuscelli, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: What Have We Learned in a Decade?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 493-512, October.
    11. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    12. Brian K. Kovak, 2013. "Regional Effects of Trade Reform: What Is the Correct Measure of Liberalization?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1960-1976, August.
    13. Ulyssea, Gabriel & Ponczek, Vladimir, 2018. "Enforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 11783, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Rodrigo R. Soares & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 158-195, October.
    16. Facchini, Giovanni & Liu, Maggie Y. & Mayda, Anna Maria & Zhou, Minghai, 2019. "China's “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 126-144.
    17. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    18. Mansour, Hani & Medina, Pamela & Velásquez, Andrea, 2022. "Import competition and gender differences in labor reallocation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Zi, Yuan, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and the Great Labor Reallocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14490, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Isis Gaddis & Janneke Pieters, 2017. "The Gendered Labor Market Impacts of Trade Liberalization: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(2), pages 457-490.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:10:p:2908-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.