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Trade, jobs, and worker welfare

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  • Artuc, Erhan
  • Bastos, Paulo
  • Lee, Eunhee

Abstract

We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.

Suggested Citation

  • Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Lee, Eunhee, 2025. "Trade, jobs, and worker welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:158:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625001114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154
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    1. Artuc, Erhan & Ortega Hernandez, Johan Andrey, 2026. "International Trade Policy and Quantitative Models : A Practitioner’s Guide," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11347, The World Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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