Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA
Using US Census data for 1990-2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on US wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports, and each locality's dependance on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors. In addition, we find strong evidence of anticipatory adjustment in places whose protection was expected to fall but had not yet fallen; this adjustment appears to have conferred an anticipatory rent to workers in those locations.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "Factor Market Search and the Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 325-55, April.
- Sethupathy, Guru, 2013. "Offshoring, wages, and employment: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 73-97.
- Petia Topalova, 2005.
"Trade Liberalization, Poverty And Inequality: Evidence From Indian Districts,"
- Petia Topalova, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Indian Districts," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 291-336 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Petia Topalova, 2005. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from Indian Districts," NBER Working Papers 11614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison, Ann & McLaren, John & McMillan, Margaret S., 2010.
"Recent findings on trade and inequality:,"
IFPRI discussion papers
1047, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332, January.
- Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007.
"Delay and Dynamics in Labor Market Adjustment: Simulation Results,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
0703, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Artuç, Erhan & Chaudhuri, Shubham & McLaren, John, 2008. "Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-13, May.
- Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2012.
"Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA,"
NBER Working Papers
18508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
- Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Peter K. Schott, 2002. "U.S. Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER Working Papers 9387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Romalis, 2007.
"NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
- John Romalis, 2005. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M. Stern, 2002.
"An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA,"
02011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion Paper Series a431, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Working Papers 491, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Gordon H. Hanson, 2007.
"Globalization, Labor Income, and Poverty in Mexico,"
in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 417-456
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Globalization, Labor Income, and Poverty in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 11027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anil Kumar, 2006. "Did NAFTA spur Texas exports?," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 3-7.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.