An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA
We provide an econometric analysis of whether or not the tariff preferences extended to Canada and Mexico under NAFTA may have resulted in trade diversion. A review of previous studies, both descriptive and econometric, suggests that trade diversion has occurred especially as evidenced by Mexico's increased shares of U.S. imports apparently at the expense of several Asian countries. We use a conceptual framework based on a partial-equilibrium model of differentiated product industries under monopolistic competition for many countries. The model is implemented empirically using a fixed-effect panel analysis of U.S. imports at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level for the period, 1992-98. Of the 70 sets of regressions that were run, the coefficients of the tariff rates were statistically significant in 15 cases. The strongest evidence of trade diversion was found mainly for U.S. imports of textile and apparel products. We also estimated regressions for selected commodities at the HS 4-digit level. The results suggest trade diversion for textiles, apparel, and some footwear products but not for trade in motor cars and vehicles and television receivers, which may have been more influenced by changes in foreign direct investment and outsourcing rather than tariff preferences.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James, 2013.
"Sample selection bias as a specification error,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
- Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, 06.
- Wall, Howard-J, 2002.
"Has Japan Been Left Out in the Cold by Regional Integration?,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 117-134, April.
- Howard J. Wall, 2002. "Has Japan been left out in the cold by regional integration?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 25-36.
- Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
- Manning, W. G. & Duan, N. & Rogers, W. H., 1987. "Monte Carlo evidence on the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 59-82, May.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
- David M. Gould, 1998. "Has NAFTA changed North American trade?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 12-23.
- Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-11, December.
- Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003.
"NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports,"
Papers in Regional Science,
Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November.
- Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu, 1998. "An Industrial Analysis of Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of NAFTA," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 400-425.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Nora Lustig, 2001. "Life Is Not Easy: Mexico's Quest for Stability and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 85-106, Winter.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1993. "Free Trade Agreements as Protectionist Devices: Rules of Origin," NBER Working Papers 4352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:02011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.