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Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence

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How do shocks to economic fundamentals in the world economy affect local labor markets" In a framework with a flexible structure of spatial linkages, we characterize the model-consistent shock exposure of a local market as the exogenous shift in its production revenues and consumption costs. In general equilibrium, labor outcomes in any market respond directly to the market�s own shock exposure, and indirectly to other markets shocks exposures. We show how spatial linkages control the size and the heterogeneity of these indirect effects. We then develop a new estimation methodology - the Model-implied Optimal IV (MOIV) - that exploits quasi-experimental variation in economic shocks to estimate spatial linkages and evaluate their counterfactual implications. Applying our methodology to US Commuting Zones, we find that difference-in-difference designs based on model-consistent measures of local shock exposure approximate well the differential effect of international trade shocks across CZs, but miss around half of the aggregate effect, partly due to the offsetting action of indirect effects.

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  • Rodrigo Ad�o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp�sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2163
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    6. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models," CEP Discussion Papers dp1642, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.
    8. ADACHI Daisuke & SAITO Yukiko, 2020. "Multinational Production and Labor Share," Discussion papers 20012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen, 2020. "International friends and enemies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108480, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "Trade and Geography," NBER Working Papers 27821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jose Carreno, 2020. "Housing Booms and the U.S. Productivity Puzzle," Working Papers 20-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2019. "The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements," NBER Working Papers 25487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    15. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, 2020. "Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
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    18. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    19. Rappoport, Veronica & Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Martina Magli, 2020. "The Direct and Indirect Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8413, CESifo.
    21. Jaravel, Xavier & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Keywords

    Economic Impacts of Globalization; Regional Economics Measurement; International Trade; Economic Geography; General Equilibrium; Structural Estimation;
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