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Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement

Listed author(s):
  • Lorenzo Caliendo
  • Luca David Opromolla
  • Fernando Parro
  • Alessandro Sforza

The economic effects from labor market integration are crucially affected by the extent to which countries are open to trade. In this paper we build a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model with trade in goods and labor mobility across countries to study and quantify the economic effects of trade and labor market integration. In our model trade is costly and features households of different skills and nationalities facing costly forward-looking relocation decisions. We use the EU Labour Force Survey to construct migration flows by skill and nationality across 17 countries for the period 2002-2007. We then exploit the timing variation of the 2004 EU enlargement to estimate the elasticity of migration flows to labor mobility costs, and to identify the change in labor mobility costs associated to the actual change in policy. We apply our model and use these estimates, as well as the observed changes in tariffs, to quantify the effects from the EU enlargement. We find that new member state countries are the largest winners from the EU enlargement, and in particular unskilled labor. We find smaller welfare gains for EU-15 countries. However, in the absence of changes to trade policy, the EU-15 would have been worse off after the enlargement. We study even further the interaction effects between trade and migration policies and the role of different mechanisms in shaping our results. Our results highlight the importance of trade for the quantification of the welfare and migration effects from labor market integration.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 23695.

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Date of creation: Aug 2017
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23695
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  1. A. Kerem Co?ar & Nezih Guner & James Tybout, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 625-663, March.
  2. Artuç, Erhan & McLaren, John, 2015. "Trade policy and wage inequality: A structural analysis with occupational and sectoral mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 278-294.
  3. Ricahrd E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  4. John Kennan, 2016. "Open Borders in the European Union and Beyond: Migration Flows and Labor Market Implications," 2016 Meeting Papers 1359, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Monte, Ferdinando & Redding, Stephen J. & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "Commuting, Migration and Local Employment Elasticities," CEPR Discussion Papers 10933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Angrist, Joshua D, 1995. "The Economic Returns to Schooling in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1065-1087, December.
  7. Ariel Burstein & Gordon Hanson & Lin Tian & Jonathan Vogel, 2017. "Tradability and the Labor-Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  9. Hanson, Gordon H. & Slaughter, Matthew J., 2002. "Labor-market adjustment in open economies: Evidence from US states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 3-29, June.
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