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Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms

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  • Hsu, Wen-Tai
  • Ma, Lin

Abstract

The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban migration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size. We find a striking contrast in migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to large cities in 2005, but more to small- and medium-sized cities in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China divided into rural, mega-city, and other-city regions. We find that alternative urbanization policies that are not differential and that are more laissez-faire substantially improve national welfare, in magnitudes that are comparable to the welfare gains from the trade liberalization that China has put in place in the past.

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  • Hsu, Wen-Tai & Ma, Lin, 2021. "Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:91:y:2021:i:c:s0166046220303240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103639
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    2. Yang Yang, 2023. "Hukou Identity and Economic Behaviours: A Social Identity Perspective," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph23-02 edited by Catherine Bros & Julie Lochard.
    3. Li, Bingjing & Ma, Lin, 2022. "JUE insight: Migration, transportation infrastructure, and the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Xiaomeng Zhao & Lin Liu, 2022. "The Impact of Urbanization Level on Urban–Rural Income Gap in China Based on Spatial Econometric Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Jie Chen & Wei Wang & Yan Song, 2023. "Economic Potential Gain, Income Uncertainty, and Rural Migrants’ Urban Homeownership: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.

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