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Open Borders in the European Union and Beyond: Migration Flows and Labor Market Implications

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  • John Kennan

    (University of Wisconsin Madison)

Abstract

In 2004, the European Union admitted 10 new countries, and wages in these countries were generally well below the levels in the existing member countries. Citizens of these newly-admitted countries were subsequently free to take jobs anywhere in the EU, and many did so. In 2015, a large number of refugees from Syria and other broken countries sought to migrate to EU countries (along very dangerous routes), and these refugees were met with fierce resistance, at least in some places. This paper seeks to understand the labor market implications of allowing free migration across borders, with particular reference to the EU. The aim is to quantify the migration flows associated with EU enlargement, and to analyze the extent to which these flows affected equilibrium wages. The population of Syria is about 17 million; the EU population is over 500 million, so it seems likely that if free migration were allowed from Syria to the EU, the wage effects would be small. Indeed, preliminary estimates suggest that even if the borders are open to larger sources populations (such as Afghanistan, 33 million, or Ukraine with populations of about 33 and 44 million), the wage effects would still not be very large.

Suggested Citation

  • John Kennan, 2016. "Open Borders in the European Union and Beyond: Migration Flows and Labor Market Implications," 2016 Meeting Papers 1359, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1359
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2021. "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3491-3545.
    3. Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2018. "Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1468-1487, June.
    4. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2019. "On Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration," Working Paper 19-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Christian Dustmann & Ian P. Preston, 2019. "Free Movement, Open Borders, and the Global Gains from Labor Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 783-808, August.
    6. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Mirela PANAIT, 2017. "Main Developments and Perspectives of the European Union," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(2), pages 57-79, June.
    7. Monge-Naranjo, Alexander, 2020. "A Theory of Economic Unions: A Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 128-132.
    8. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2021. "Public Debt, Private Pain: Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration," Working Paper 21-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Ziran Ding & Jose Garcia-Louzao & Valentin Jouvanceau, 2023. "The Dynamics of Product and Labor Market Power: Evidence from Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 118, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. Alexandru MANOLE & Radu Titus MARINESCU & Aurelian DIACONU, 2017. "Romania on the road to European integration," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(5), pages 41-50, May.
    11. Mamertino, Mariano & Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 51-53.
    12. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Constantin Anghelache & Daniel Dumitrescu & Doina Burea & Radu Stoica, 2018. "Analysis of the Effect of Accessing the Community Funds for Financing Investments on Romania's Economic Growth," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 102-112, April.
    13. Lili Yao & J. Brandon Bolen & Claudia R. Williamson, 2022. "Are economic arguments against immigration missing the boat? The fiscal effects of the Mariel Boatlift," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 305-325, October.
    14. Małgorzata Walerych, 2024. "The aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 99-143, February.
    15. Sargent, Kristina, 2023. "The labor market impacts of Brexit: Migration and the European union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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