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Trade and Labor Market Dynamics

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  • Lorenzo CALIENDO
  • Maximiliano DVORKIN
  • Fernando PARRO

Abstract

We develop a dynamic trade model where production and consumption take place in spatially distinct labor markets with varying exposure to domestic and international trade. The model recognizes the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input-output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which are usually difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 38 countries, 50 U.S. states, and 22 sectors, and use the rise in China's import competition to quantify the effects across more than 1,000 U.S. labor markets. We find that China's trade shock resulted in a loss of 800,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs, about 50% of the change in the manufacturing employment share unexplained by a secular trend. We find aggregate welfare gains, but, due to trade and migration frictions, the welfare and employment effects vary across U.S. labor markets. Estimated transition costs to the new long-run equilibrium are also heterogeneous and reflect the importance of accounting for labor dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo CALIENDO & Maximiliano DVORKIN & Fernando PARRO, 2016. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics," Discussion papers 16050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:16050
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    Cited by:

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    2. Monras, Joan, 2015. "Economic Shocks and Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 8840, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    7. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell, 2016. "A Regional Look at U.S. International Trade," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(1), pages 17-39.
    8. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1083, November.
    10. Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2020. "Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 429-463, December.
    11. Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "Review Of “Globalization And Inequality” By Elhanan Helpman," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 16(2), pages 141-147.
    12. Lyon, Spencer G. & Waugh, Michael E., 2018. "Redistributing the gains from trade through progressive taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 185-202.
    13. Joan Monras, 2020. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3017-3089.
    14. Albert, Christoph & Monras, Joan, 2018. "Immigration and Spatial Equilibrium: the Role of Expenditures in the Country of Origin," CEPR Discussion Papers 12842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Pessoa, Joao Paulo & Costa, Francisco, 2020. "Winners and Losers from China's Ascension in International Trade: a Structural Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(2), March.
    16. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    17. Pessoa, Joao Paulo & Costa, Francisco, 2019. "Winners and Losers from China's Ascension in International Trade: a Structural Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(2).
    18. Peter M. Morrow & Daniel Trefler, 2017. "Endowments, Skill-Biased Technology, and Factor Prices: A Unified Approach to Trade," NBER Working Papers 24078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Treb Allen & Cauê de Castro Dobbin & Melanie Morten, 2018. "Border Walls," NBER Working Papers 25267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Fabian Eckert & Tatjana Kleineberg, 2019. "Can We Save the American Dream? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of School Financing on Local Opportunities," 2019 Meeting Papers 1197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    22. Lin Tian & Jonathan Vogel & Gordon Hanson & Ariel Burstein, 2017. "Immigration, Occupations, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," 2017 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Artuc, Erhan & Porto, Guido & Rijkers, Bob, 2019. "Trading off the income gains and the inequality costs of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-45.
    24. Eckert, Fabian & Fort, Teresa & Schott, Peter K. & Yang, Natalie, 2020. "Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Monras, Joan, 2015. "Economic Shocks and Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 8840, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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