IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Robert C. Feenstra
  • Akira Sasahara

Abstract

We quantify the impact on U.S. employment from imports and exports during 1995-2011, using the World Input-Output Database. We find that the growth in U.S. exports led to increased demand for 2 million jobs in manufacturing, 0.5 million in resource industries, and a remarkable 4.1 million jobs in services, totaling 6.6 million. One-third of those service sector jobs are due to the intermediate demand from merchandise (manufacturing and resource) exports, so the total labor demand gain due to merchandise exports was 3.7 million jobs. In comparison, U.S. merchandise imports from China led to reduced demand of 1.4 million jobs in manufacturing and 0.6 million in services (with small losses in resource industries), with total job losses of 2.0 million. It follows that the expansion in U.S. merchandise exports to the world relative to imports from China over 1995-2011 created net demand for about 1.7 million jobs. Comparing the growth of U.S. merchandise exports to merchandise imports from all countries, we find a fall in net labor demand due to trade, but comparing the growth of total U.S. exports to total imports from all countries, then there is a rise in net labor demand because of the growth in service exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2017. "The ‘China Shock’, Exports and U.S. Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis," NBER Working Papers 24022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24022
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karolina Ekholm & Rikard Forslid & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 6, pages 111-130, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    4. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Mary Amiti & Mi Dai & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis, 2017. "How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?," Staff Reports 817, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2018. "Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    8. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    10. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2015. "The Impact of Trade on Labor Market Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Brian C. Cadena & Brian K. Kovak, 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 257-290, January.
    12. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    13. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    14. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    15. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    16. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    17. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    18. Vianna, Andre C., 2016. "The impact of exports to China on Latin American growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 58-66.
    19. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert & Romalis, John, 2017. "How Did China's WTO Entry Benefit U.S. Consumers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Adrian Wood, 2018. "The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 975-999, April.
    21. Lorenzo CALIENDO & Maximiliano DVORKIN & Fernando PARRO, 2016. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics," Discussion papers 16050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
    23. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert C. & Romalis, John, 2020. "How did China's WTO entry affect U.S. prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    24. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    25. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    26. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    27. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2016. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1958-1966, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Sasahara, Akira, 2019. "Explaining the employment effect of exports: Value-added content matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Wages: Multi-Country Evidence from Linked Worker-Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 505-539, July.
    5. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    7. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert C. & Romalis, John, 2020. "How did China's WTO entry affect U.S. prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra, 2017. "Statistics to Measure Offshoring and its Impact," NBER Working Papers 23067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama & Mina Taniguchi, 2021. "The China syndrome: A cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2758-2792, September.
    12. Martina Magli, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1892, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Arni, Patrick & Egger, Peter & Erhardt, Katharina & Gubler, Matthias & Sauré, Philip, 2024. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Trade Shocks on Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 16895, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 351, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    15. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    17. Fan, Haichao & Lin, Faqin & Lin, Shu, 2020. "The hidden cost of trade liberalization: Input tariff shocks and worker health in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    20. Lee, Eunhee & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2018. "Global value chains and inequality with endogenous labor supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 223-241.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.