IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed019/262.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Sposi

    (Southern Methodist University)

Abstract

Differential changes in the age distribution across countries has sharp implications for the evolution of global imbalances. I develop a dynamic, multicountry, Ricardian trade model with endogenous labor supply to measure the effect of demographics on trade imbalances across 28 countries from 1970-2014. Changes in the age distribution impact a country's net exports directly through the demand for net saving and indirectly through relative labor supply. Counterfactually removing demographic-induced changes to saving demand imply substantially lower net exports in emerging economies that experience relatively fast increases in working age shares, and higher net exports in advanced economies that experienced flat, and even declining, working age shares. On average, one percentage point increase in a country's working age share relative to the world increases the ratio of net exports to GDP by 14 percentage points. This finding helps reconcile the allocation puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Sposi, 2019. "Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances," 2019 Meeting Papers 262, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2019/paper_262.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 5446, CESifo.
    2. Joseph Steinberg, 2019. "On the Source of U.S. Trade Deficits: Global Saving Glut or Domestic Saving Drought?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 200-223, January.
    3. Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu & B Ravikumar, 2016. "Capital Accumulation and Welfare Gains from Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    5. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2020. "A tractable framework for analyzing a class of nonstationary Markov models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1289-1323, November.
    6. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    8. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511-564.
    9. Rodrigo Adao & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2018. "Trade, Agglomeration Effects, and Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," 2018 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    13. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    14. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    15. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    16. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel & Neiman, Brent, 2016. "Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 5-23.
    17. William B. Peterman, 2016. "Reconciling Micro And Macro Estimates Of The Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 100-120, January.
    18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    19. Lorenzo CALIENDO & Maximiliano DVORKIN & Fernando PARRO, 2016. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics," Discussion papers 16050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2012. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 249-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2017. "The Role of Trade Costs in the Surge of Trade Imbalances," 2017 Meeting Papers 212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joseph B. Steinberg, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 821-865, May.
    2. Joseph Steinberg, 2019. "On the Source of U.S. Trade Deficits: Global Saving Glut or Domestic Saving Drought?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 200-223, January.
    3. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Thomas F. Cooley & Espen Henriksen & Charlie Nusbaum, 2019. "Demographic Obstacles to European Growth," NBER Working Papers 26503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Globalization and Structural Change in the United States: A Quantitative Assessment," 2018 Meeting Papers 1027, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Capital accumulation and dynamic gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 93-110.
    3. Joseph B. Steinberg, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 821-865, May.
    4. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman & Eva Van Leemput, 2020. "Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 456-508, September.
    5. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    6. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Michael Sposi & Ana Maria Santacreu & B Ravikumar, 2016. "Capital Accumulation and Welfare Gains from Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Alvarez, Fernando, 2017. "Capital accumulation and international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2018. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," 2018 Meeting Papers 890, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Spencer, Adam, 2017. "Policy Effects of International Taxation on Firm Dynamics and Capital Structure," MPRA Paper 78990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Robert Zymek, 2018. "Bilateral Trade Imbalances," 2018 Meeting Papers 1117, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Carter Mix, 2020. "Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1304, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2019. "Financial Development and Trade Liberalization," 2019 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Wyatt J. Brooks & Pau S. Pujolas, 2018. "Capital accumulation and the welfare gains from trade," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 491-523, August.
    15. Rajnish Mehra & John Donaldson & Christos Koulovatianos & Jian Li, 2018. "Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China’s One-Child Policy," NCAER Working Papers 112, National Council of Applied Economic Research.
    16. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    17. George Alessandria & Horag Choi & Dan Lu, 2017. "Trade Integration and the Trade Balance in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 633-674, August.
    18. Lixin Tang, 2020. "Entrepreneur Income Inequality, Aggregate Saving and the Gains from Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 273-295, October.
    19. Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1083, November.
    20. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2021. "The dynamics of the U.S. trade balance and real exchange rate: The J curve and trade costs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed019:262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.