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Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Lee E. Ohanian
  • Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
  • Mark L. J. Wright

Abstract

After World War II, international capital flowed into slow-growing Latin America rather than fast-growing Asia. This is surprising as, everything else equal, fast growth should imply high capital returns. This paper develops a capital flow accounting framework to quantify the role of different factor market distortions in producing these patterns. Surprisingly, we find that distortions in labor markets, rather than domestic or international capital markets, account for the bulk of these flows. Labor market distortions that indirectly depress investment incentives by lowering equilibrium labor supply explain two-thirds of observed flows, while improvement in these distortions over time accounts for much of Asia's rapid growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:12:p:3541-82
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151510
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    2. Zhen Huo & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, "undated". "The Global Business Cycle: Measurement and Transmission," Working Papers 669, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    3. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Rey, Hélène & Winant, Pablo, 2020. "Financial integration and growth in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Goto, Eiji & Bürgi, Constantin, 2021. "Sectoral Okun's law and cross-country cyclical differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 91-103.
    6. Hung Ly-Dai, 2019. "Non-linear pattern of international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 575-600, August.
    7. Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2019. "Endogenous borrowing constraints and stagnation in Latin America," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Leal, Matheus Cardoso & Nakane, Márcio Issao, 2025. "Brazilian economy in the 2000’s: A tale of two recessions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(1).
    9. Zhen Huo & Andrei A Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2025. "International Comovement in the Global Production Network," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 365-403.
    10. Meixia Wang & Yunxia Wang, 2024. "Does Factor Market Distortion Inhibit Enterprise Innovation? Empirical Evidence from Chinese Industrial Enterprises," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 12830-12853, September.
    11. Schroth, Josef, 2023. "Capital flows and growth across developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Pang, Silu & Hua, Guihong & Liu, Hui, 2023. "How do R&D capital market distortions affect innovation efficiency in China? Some evidence about spatial interaction and spillover effects," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Pedro Brinca & João Ricardo Costa Filho & Francesca Loria, 2024. "Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1276-1316, September.
    14. Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2024. "Closing Small and "Sufficiently" Large Open Economies with Different Asset Structures," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 106(13), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Ly-Dai, Hung, 2016. "Non-Linear Pattern of International Capital Flows," MPRA Paper 90236, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2018.
    16. Jacek Rothert & Jacob Short, 2023. "Non-Traded Goods, Factor Markets Frictions, and International Capital Flows," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 158-177, April.
    17. Joseph Steinberg, 2019. "On the Source of U.S. Trade Deficits: Global Saving Glut or Domestic Saving Drought?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 200-223, January.
    18. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    19. Daniel Fehrle & Vasilij Konysev, 2025. "A “Marginal” Tale of Two Germanies: Accounting for the Systemic Divide," Discussion Paper Series 347, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    20. Paul Ilhak Ko, 2020. "Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement," 2020 Papers pko1026, Job Market Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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