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International Comovement in the Global Production Network

Author

Listed:
  • Zhen Huo
  • Andrei A Levchenko
  • Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Abstract

This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP comovement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector dynamic network propagation model, using data for the G7 countries over the period 1978–2007. Our main finding is that while the network transmission of shocks is quantitatively important, it accounts for a minority of observed comovement under the estimated range of structural elasticities. Contemporaneous responses to correlated shocks in the production network are more successful at generating comovement than intertemporal propagation through capital accumulation. Extensions with multiple shocks, nominal rigidities, and international financial integration leave our main result unchanged. A combination of TFP and labour supply shocks is quantitatively successful at reproducing the observed international business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhen Huo & Andrei A Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2025. "International Comovement in the Global Production Network," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 365-403.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:92:y:2025:i:1:p:365-403.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdae033
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    Keywords

    Production networks; International comovement;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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