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Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy

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  • JULIAN DI GIOVANNI
  • GALINA HALE

Abstract

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks on country‐sector stock returns. We estimate a structural spatial autoregression (SAR) model that is consistent with an open‐economy production network framework. Using the SAR model, we decompose the total impact of U.S. monetary policy on global stock returns into direct and network effects. Nearly 70% of the total impact is due to the network effect of global production linkages. Empirical counterfactuals show that shutting down global production linkages halves the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:77:y:2022:i:6:p:3373-3421
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13181
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    5. Rodnyansky, A. & Timmer, Y. & Yago, N., 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2357, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Marco Pinchetti & Andrzej Szczepaniak, 2024. "Global Spillovers of the Fed Information Effect," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 773-819, June.
    7. Mistak, Jakub & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2024. "Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers: the role of supply chains, credit networks and fear of floating," Working Paper Series 2995, European Central Bank.
    8. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: International Trade and the Foreign Effects of US Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 300-325, March.
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    14. Thomas, Lina, 2023. "Ripple effect: Disentangling the global impact web of US monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    15. Hötte, Kerstin, 2023. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
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    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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