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On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

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  • Alfaro, Laura
  • García-Santana, Manuel
  • Moral-Benito, Enrique

Abstract

We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all firms in Spain with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset on the universe of corporate loans for 2003-2013 to identify bank-specific shocks for each year using methods from the matched employer-employee literature. Combining firm-specific measures of upstream and downstream exposure, we construct firm-specific exogenous credit supply shocks and estimate their direct and indirect effects on real activity. Credit supply shocks have sizable direct and downstream propagation effects on investment and output throughout the period but no significant impact on employment during the expansion period. Downstream propagation effects are comparable or even larger in magnitude than direct effects. The results corroborate the importance of network effects in quantifying the real effects of credit shocks and show that real effects vary during booms and contractions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2018. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12794, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12794
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    Cited by:

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    2. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    3. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Adelino, Manuel & Ferreira, Miguel & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Pires, Pedro, 2020. "Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2020. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 584-642, September.
    6. Stefano Federico & Fadi Hassan & Veronica Rappoport, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1649, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Paolo Finaldi Russo & Valentina Nigro & Sabrina Pastorelli, 2022. "Bank lending to small firms: metamorphosis of a financing model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Barbieri, Claudio & Couaillier, Cyril & Perales, Cristian & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Informing macroprudential policy choices using credit supply and demand decompositions," Working Paper Series 2702, European Central Bank.
    10. Kensuke Fukunaga & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2022. "Supply Chain Network and Credit Supply," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. Barbosa, Luciana & Bilan, Andrada & Célérier, Claire, 2019. "Credit supply and human capital: evidence from bank pension liabilities," Working Paper Series 2271, European Central Bank.
    12. Alfarano, Simone & Blanco-Arroyo, Omar, 2022. "Banking sector concentration, credit shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    13. Ana Cristina Soares & Philipp Meinen, 2021. "Markups and Financial Shocks," Working Papers w202122, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    15. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 0. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-59.
    16. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Bouscasse, Paul, 2022. "Supply or Demand: What Drives Fluctuations in the Bank Loan Market?," Working Paper Series 2646, European Central Bank.
    17. Cecilia Dassatti & Francesc Rodriguez-Tous & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2020. "Zombie lending: how many wondering souls are there?," Documentos de trabajo 2020003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    18. Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago Christiano Silva & Bernardus F. N. Van Doornik, 2019. "Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: evidence from government bank credit expansions," Working Papers Series 507, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. ARATA Yoshiyuki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank-Lending Channel; employment; input-output linkages; investment; matched employer-employee; output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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