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On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Manuel García-Santana
  • Enrique Moral-Benito

Abstract

We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all firms in Spain with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset on the universe of corporate loans for 2003-2013 to identify bank-specific shocks for each year using methods from the matched employer-employee literature. We construct firm-specific exogenous credit supply shocks and estimate their direct and indirect effects on real activity using firm-specific measures of upstream and downstream exposure. Credit supply shocks have sizable direct and downstream propagation effects on investment and output throughout the period, especially during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. In terms of mechanisms, trade credit extended by suppliers and price adjustments play a role in accounting for downstream propagation of financial shocks.

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  • Laura Alfaro & Manuel García-Santana & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2019. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 25458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25458
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2020. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 584-642, September.
    4. Rappoport, Veronica & Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Barbosa, Luciana & Bilan, Andrada & Célérier, Claire, 2019. "Credit supply and human capital: evidence from bank pension liabilities," Working Paper Series 2271, European Central Bank.
    7. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 0. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-59.
    8. Cecilia Dassatti & Francesc Rodriguez-Tous & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2020. "Zombie lending: how many wondering souls are there?," Documentos de trabajo 2020003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    9. Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago Christiano Silva & Bernardus F. N. Van Doornik, 2019. "Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: evidence from government bank credit expansions," Working Papers Series 507, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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