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On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro

    (Harvard Business School And Nber)

  • Manuel García-Santana

    (Upf, Barcelona Gse, and Cepr)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We consider the real effects of bank lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all firms in Spain with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset incorporating information on the universe of corporate loans for 2003-2013. Using methods from the matched employer-employee literature for handling large data sets, we identify bank-specific shocks for each year in our sample. Combining the Spanish Input-Output structure and firm-specific measures of upstream and downstream exposure, we construct firm-specific exogenous credit supply shocks and estimate their direct and indirect effects on real activity. Credit supply shocks have sizable direct and downstream propagation effects on investment and output throughout the period but no significant impact on employment during the expansion period. Downstream propagation effects are comparable or even larger in magnitude than direct effects. The results corroborate the importance of network effects in quantifying the real effects of credit shocks and show that real effects vary during booms and busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Manuel García-Santana & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2018. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Working Papers 1809, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1809
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2020. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 584-642, September.
    2. Pablo D’Erasmo & Hernán Moscoso Boedo & María Pía Olivero & Máximo Sangiácomo, 0. "Relationship Networks in Banking Around a Sovereign Default and Currency Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-59.
    3. Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Peydró, José Luis & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Rappoport, Veronica & Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Spatareanu, M. & Manole, V. & Kabiri, A. & Roland, I., 2020. "Bank Default Risk Propagation along Supply Chains: Evidence from the U.K," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2058, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Cecilia Dassatti & Francesc Rodriguez-Tous & Rodrigo Lluberas, 2020. "Zombie lending: how many wondering souls are there?," Documentos de trabajo 2020003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    9. Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago Christiano Silva & Bernardus F. N. Van Doornik, 2019. "Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: evidence from government bank credit expansions," Working Papers Series 507, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Barbosa, Luciana & Bilan, Andrada & Célérier, Claire, 2019. "Credit supply and human capital: evidence from bank pension liabilities," Working Paper Series 2271, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank-lending channel; employment; investment; output; matched employeremployee; input-output linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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