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Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Banu Demir

    (Bilkent University and CEPR)

  • Beata Javorcik

    (University of Oxford and CEPR)

  • Tomasz K. Michalski

    (HEC Paris and GREGHEC)

  • Evren Ors

    (HEC Paris and GREGHEC)

Abstract

We examine the propagation of a small unexpected supply shock through a production network and the role financial constraints play in its transmission. Using data on almost all Turkish supplier-customer links, we exploit the heterogeneous impact of an unexpected import-tax increase for identification. We find that this relatively minor shock had a nontrivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Importantly, we show that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2024. "Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 437-454, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:2:p:437-454
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01162
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilgin, Nuriye Melisa, 2025. "Inflation diffusion through supply chains," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Peng, Pin & Kang, Yuanzhi & Huang, Wanli, 2025. "Analyzing the transmission effects of monetary policy in production networks under economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alfaro-Urena, Alonso & Manelici, Isabela & Vasquez, Jose P, 2019. "The Effects of Multinationals on Workers: Evidence from Costa Rica," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt51r419w9, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    5. Tu, Ruide & Zeng, Yitang & Zhang, Su & Zhou, Yifu, 2025. "Dawn in enterprises' financial difficulties: The significance of digital financial awareness in mitigating hardship," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    7. Jan Fialkowski & Christian Diem & Andr'as Borsos & Stefan Thurner, 2025. "A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk," Papers 2502.17044, arXiv.org.
    8. Mitsuyo ANDO & Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Shujiro URATA & Kenta YAMANOUCHI, 2025. "Intra-firm Networks during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 25040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Fabrizio Leone & Michele Mancini & Patrick Zoi, 2025. "How Global Are Local Value Chains?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12271, CESifo.
    11. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    12. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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