IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/20027.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshiyuki ARATA

Abstract

What drives macroeconomic fluctuations? The recent macroeconomic literature (e.g. Gabaix (2011); Acemoglu et al. (2012)) shows that microeconomic shocks are an important source for macroeconomic fluctuations because of the granularity of an economy. I provide probabilistic results that quantify the role of the granularity in the variance of aggregate output and macroeconomic tail probability. First, in the linear model of Hulten's theorem, I show that the limiting behavior of the variance of aggregate output as the number of firms goes to infinity is equivalent to that of the contribution of the largest firm when the distribution of firm size has a Pareto-like tail. Empirical data in Japan also indicates the significance of the granularity in terms of the variance of aggregate output. Second, I obtain a formula that links the macroeconomic tail probability and the tail probability of microeconomic shocks. Utilizing the formula, I find that the empirical granularity is too low to lead to the large deviation of aggregate output in Japan. Third, I consider non-linear models and obtain the upper bounds for the variance of aggregate output and the macroeconomic tail probability. This shows that without the granularity, macroeconomic fluctuations decay very rapidly as the number of firms increases, which is the diversification argument in the non-linear models. In summary, my results imply that the granularity is a necessary condition both in linear and non-linear models, and that both granularity and non-linear terms are needed to explain the micro-originated large deviation of aggregate output.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/20e027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levent Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," 2018 Meeting Papers 626, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Harald Fadinger & Christian Ghiglino & Mariya Teteryatnikova, 2020. "Income Differences, Productivity and Input-Output Networks," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_168, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    4. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    5. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    6. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    7. Banu Demir & Ana Cecília Fieler & Daniel Xu & Kelly Kaili Yang, 2021. "O-Ring Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 28433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2020. "Financial Constraints and propagation of shocks in production network," Discussion Papers 2020-23, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    10. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    11. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2017. "Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy," NBER Working Papers 23332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    13. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Atalay, Enghin & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Wang, Zhenting, 2018. "Accounting for the sources of macroeconomic tail risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 65-69.
    16. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    17. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    18. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    19. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    20. Engin L. Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Margit Reischer, 2019. "Finance-thy-Neighbor. Trade Credit Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2019 Meeting Papers 1129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Charles I. Jones, 2011. "Intermediate Goods and Weak Links in the Theory of Economic Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    2. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    6. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman & Emmanuel Dhyne, 2019. "Imperfect competition in firm-to-firm trade," Working Paper Research 363, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    10. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    12. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2021. "The Size of Micro-originated Aggregate Fluctuations: An analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan," Discussion papers 21066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    14. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Huremovic, Kenan & Jiménez, Gabriel & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," EconStor Preprints 222281, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Jorge Miranda Pinto, 2021. "Production Network Structure, Service Share, and Aggregate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 146-173, January.
    17. Molnarova, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2021. "Technology, demand, and productivity: what an industry model tells us about business cycles," IHS Working Paper Series 29, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    18. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Altinoglu, Levent, 2021. "The origins of aggregate fluctuations in a credit network economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 316-334.
    20. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.