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Accounting for the Sources of Macroeconomic Tail Risks

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Abstract

Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Enghin Atalay & Thorsten Drautzburg & Zhenting Wang, 2018. "Accounting for the Sources of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," Working Papers 18-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:18-8
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2018.08
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    2. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Peng, Pin & Kang, Yuanzhi & Huang, Wanli, 2025. "Analyzing the transmission effects of monetary policy in production networks under economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Nikola Dacic & Marko Melolinna, 2022. "The size-centrality relationship in production networks," Bank of England working papers 994, Bank of England.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    6. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott J. & Malik, Samreen, 2025. "Cautionary tales of fat tails," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2021. "The Size of Micro-originated Aggregate Fluctuations: An analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan," Discussion papers 21066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Michele Boldrin & Carlos Garriga & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Reconstructing the Great Recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(3), pages 271-311, July.
    9. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Ahn, Jungkyu & Ahn, Yongkil, 2023. "The tail risk surface," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    11. Jeongseop Song & Kim Hiang Liow, 2023. "Industrial tail exposure risk and asset price: Evidence from US REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1209-1245, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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