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Reconstructing the great recession

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of the construction sector in accounting for the performance of the U.S. economy before, during and after the Great Recession. We use input-output analysis to evaluate its linkages with the rest of the economy and measure the transmission of its demand shocks to the overall economy. Such effects are quantified by means of a dynamic multi-sector model parameterized to reproduce the boom-bust dynamics of employment in construction during 2000-13. The model suggests that the interlinkages account for a large share of the actual changes in aggregate employment and gross domestic product during the previous expansion, the recession and the subsequent recovery.

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  • Boldrin, Michele & Garriga, Carlos & Peralta-Alva, Adrian & Sánchez, Juan M., 2012. "Reconstructing the great recession," Working Papers 2013-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 21 Jan 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    2. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, August.
    3. Black, Fischer, 1995. " Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    4. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    5. Song, In Ho, 2010. "House Prices and Consumption," MPRA Paper 27481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2011. "Sectoral shocks, reallocation frictions, and optimal government spending," Working Papers 2011-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    9. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    10. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2012. "Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Reassessment of Conventional Wisdom," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 464-476, June.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The construction sector is key to the business cycle
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-04-09 19:10:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Gete, Pedro, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Aug 2015.
    2. Kliesen, Kevin L., 2014. "A guide to tracking the U.S. economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 35-54.
    3. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    4. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Lopez, David A., 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Residential investment; multisector models; business cycle accounting;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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