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Housing dynamics over the business cycle

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  • Kydland, Finn E.
  • Rupert, Peter
  • Šustek, Roman

Abstract

Housing construction, measured by housing starts, leads GDP in a number of countries. Measured as residential investment, the lead is observed only in the US and Canada; elsewhere, residential investment is coincident. Variants of existing theory, however, predict housing construction lagging GDP. In all countries in the sample, nominal interest rates are low ahead of GDP peaks. Introducing fully-amortizing mortgages and an estimated process for nominal interest rates into a standard model aligns the theory with the observations on starts; one-period loans are insufficient to generate the lead. Longer time to build then makes residential investment cyclically coincident

Suggested Citation

  • Kydland, Finn E. & Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2014. "Housing dynamics over the business cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86334, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:86334
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/86334/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    2. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9609-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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