IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Housing Dynamics

  • Roman Sustek

    (Bank of England)

  • Peter Rupert

    (University of California, Santa Barbara)

  • Finn Kydland

Over the U.S. business cycle, fluctuations in residential investment systematically lead fluctuations in real GDP. Evidently, these dynamics are specific to the U.S. and Canada. In other developed economies residential investment tends to be coincident with the cycle. On the other hand, in all countries considered, nonresidential investment is either coincident with or lags GDP. These observations are in sharp contrast with the predictions of nearly all business cycle models once investment is disaggregated. In such models, residential investment lags while nonresidential investment leads output. We ask to what extent differences in financing arrangements, namely fixed vs. variable rate mortgages, have in explaining the lead-lag pattern of investment. We show that including mortgage financing costs aligns the theory more closely with the data.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 315.

in new window

Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:315
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  2. Joao Cocco & John Campbell, 2004. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 632, Econometric Society.
  3. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, 08.
  4. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
  5. Margarita Rubio, 2011. "Fixed‐ and Variable‐Rate Mortgages, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 657-688, 06.
  6. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2015. "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Foreclosure Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 165-184, April.
  7. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08.
  8. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2008. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 08002, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 23 Sep 2010.
  9. Campbell, John Y., 2012. "Mortgage Market Design," Scholarly Articles 9887618, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. pengfei Wang & Tao Zha & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2012 Meeting Papers 85, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Dressler, Scott & Li, Victor, 2007. "Inside Money, Credit, and Investment," MPRA Paper 1734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1994. "What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 4875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2007. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 141-168.
  15. Gregory W. Huffman & Mark A. Wynne, 1995. "The role of intratemporal adjustment costs in a multi-sector economy," Working Papers 9508, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  16. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Working Papers 662, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
  18. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
  19. Härdle, Wolfgang & Horowitz, Joel L. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2001. "Bootstrap methods for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  20. Paul Gomme & Peter Rupert, 2005. "Theory, measurement, and calibration of macroeconomic models," Working Paper 0505, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  21. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Optimal Taxation in an RBC Model: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 11029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  24. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  25. Martin Gervais, 1998. "Housing Taxation and Capital Accumulation," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9807, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  26. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
  27. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
  28. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-214, December.
  29. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
  30. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The effect of monetary policy on residential and structures investment under differential project planning and completion times," International Finance Discussion Papers 671, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2011. "Housing and Debt over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2011/04, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  32. Li, Victor E. & Chang, Chia-Ying, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of household and business investment in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 691-706, January.
  33. Bucks, Brian & Pence, Karen, 2008. "Do borrowers know their mortgage terms?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 218-233, September.
  34. Sustek, Roman, 2009. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting," MPRA Paper 17518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, 2009. "Globally Correlated Nominal Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "An Aggregate Economy with Different Size Houses," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 705-714, 04-05.
  38. Ralph S.J Koijen & Otto Van Hemert & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Mortgage Timing," NBER Working Papers 13361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Graham Liam & Wright Stephen, 2007. "Nominal Debt Dynamics, Credit Constraints and Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-50, January.
  40. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.