GDP mimicking portfolios and the cross-section of stock returns
The components of GDP (residential investment, durables, nondurables, equipment and software, and business structures) display a pronounced lead-lag structure. We investigate the implications of this lead-lag structure for the cross-section of asset returns. We find that the leading GDP components perform well in explaining the returns of 25 size and book-to-market portfolios and do reasonably well in explaining the returns of 10 momentum portfolios. The lagging components do a poor job at explaining the returns of 25 size and book-to-market portfolios but explain the return of momentum portfolios very well. A three-factor model with the market risk premium, one leading and one lagging GDP component compares very favorably with the Carhart four-factor model in jointly explaining the returns on 25 size/book-to-market portfolios, 10 momentum portfolios and 30 industry portfolios.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: L 7,1; D - 68161 Mannheim|
Web page: http://www.zew.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Morris A. Davis, 2010.
"housing and the business cycle,"
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,
- Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08.
- Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2001. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jonathan Heathcote, 2003. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-21, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 8291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Robotti, Cesare, 2008. "Mimicking Portfolios, Economic Risk Premia, and Tests of Multi-Beta Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 354-368.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Cesare Robotti, 2005. "Mimicking portfolios, economic risk premia, and tests of multi-beta models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Craig Burnside, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-330.
- Craig Burnside, 2010. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 16634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
- Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October.
- Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2000. "Home production meets time-to-build," Working Paper 0007R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Cooper, Ilan & Priestley, Richard, 2011. "Real investment and risk dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 182-205, July.
- Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
- Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2008. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 816-838, December.
- Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2006. "Specification tests of asset pricing models using excess returns," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.