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GDP mimicking portfolios and the cross-section of stock returns

Author

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  • Kroencke, Tim A.
  • Schindler, Felix
  • Sebastian, Steffen
  • Theissen, Erik

Abstract

The components of GDP (residential investment, durables, nondurables, equipment and software, and business structures) display a pronounced lead-lag structure. We investigate the implications of this lead-lag structure for the cross-section of asset returns. We find that the leading GDP components perform well in explaining the returns of 25 size and book-to-market portfolios and do reasonably well in explaining the returns of 10 momentum portfolios. The lagging components do a poor job at explaining the returns of 25 size and book-to-market portfolios but explain the return of momentum portfolios very well. A three-factor model with the market risk premium, one leading and one lagging GDP component compares very favorably with the Carhart four-factor model in jointly explaining the returns on 25 size/book-to-market portfolios, 10 momentum portfolios and 30 industry portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kroencke, Tim A. & Schindler, Felix & Sebastian, Steffen & Theissen, Erik, 2013. "GDP mimicking portfolios and the cross-section of stock returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Robotti, Cesare, 2008. "Mimicking Portfolios, Economic Risk Premia, and Tests of Multi-Beta Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 354-368.
    4. Craig Burnside, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-330.
    5. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur. M., 2015. "Combining momentum, value, and quality for the Islamic equity portfolio: Multi-style rotation strategies using augmented Black Litterman factor model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 205-232.
    2. repec:bla:finmgt:v:45:y:2016:i:4:p:809-844 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mikael C. Bergbrant & Patrick J. Kelly, 2016. "Macroeconomic Expectations and the Size, Value, and Momentum Factors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 809-844, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Lead; Lag; Size; Value; Momentum;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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