IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfr/cefirw/w0214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Expectations and the Size, Value and Momentum Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Mikael C. Bergbrant

    () (St. Johns University)

  • Patrick J. Kelly

    () (New Economic School)

Abstract

One of the challenges facing the prior literature when examining the link between macroeconomic risks and the size (SMB), value (HML) and momentum (WML) factors is the difficulty of obtaining direct measures of macroeconomic expectations. We re-examine these relations using direct measures of investor expectations across 20 developed markets. While local and global market returns are robustly related to measures of economic activity, unlike the prior literature we find only a weak relation between HML and changes in expectations about macroeconomic activity. SMB and WML are either unrelated to or act as hedges against macroeconomic risk. This is inconsistent with HML, SMB and WML being priced because they proxy for macroeconomic risks. These findings are not the result of low power tests but rather from the fact that the individual portfolios, which make up the factors, have economically and statistically similar sensitivity to the macroeconomic risks we examine.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikael C. Bergbrant & Patrick J. Kelly, 2015. "Macroeconomic Expectations and the Size, Value and Momentum Factors," Working Papers w0214, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP214.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Value versus Growth: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1975-1999, December.
    2. Richard Arnott, 1985. "Quelques résultats relatifs à l'analyse économique des flux de trafic non stationnaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 11-44.
    3. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    4. Annette Nguyen & Robert Faff & Philip Gharghori, 2009. "Are the Fama–French factors proxying news related to GDP growth? The Australian evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 141-158, August.
    5. Angela J. Black, 2006. "Macroeconomic risk and the Fama-French three-factor model," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(6), pages 505-517.
    6. Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2009. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 266-278.
    7. Hahn, Jaehoon & Lee, Hangyong, 2006. "Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(02), pages 245-269, June.
    8. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, August.
    9. Brunello, Giorgio & Lauer, Charlotte, 2004. "Are Wages in Southern Europe More Flexible? The Effects of Cohort Size on European Earnings," IZA Discussion Papers 1299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schindler, Felix & Sebastian, Steffen & Theissen, Erik, 2013. "GDP mimicking portfolios and the cross-section of stock returns," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-026, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(02), pages 343-375, April.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    16. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
    17. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    18. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2010. "Macroeconomic risks and characteristic-based factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1383-1399, June.
    19. Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
    20. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2016. "Konjunktur bleibt robust," IMK Report 119-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    23. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    24. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    25. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, April.
    26. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy & Roni Michaely, 2005. "Using Expectations to Test Asset Pricing Models," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 34(3), Fall.
    27. Ozgur S. Ince & R. Burt Porter, 2006. "INDIVIDUAL EQUITY RETURN DATA FROM THOMSON DATASTREAM: HANDLE WITH CARE!," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 463-479.
    28. Fuerst, Michael E., 2006. "Investor risk premia and real macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 540-563, September.
    29. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2014. "Asset pricing: A tale of two days," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 171-201.
    30. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    31. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    32. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    33. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    34. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing, and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2417-2448, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Foo & Lek-Heng Lim & Ken Sze-Wai Wong, 2017. "Macroeconomics and FinTech: Uncovering Latent Macroeconomic Effects on Peer-to-Peer Lending," Papers 1710.11283, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cefirru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.