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The expected value premium

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  • Chen, Long
  • Petkova, Ralitsa
  • Zhang, Lu

Abstract

Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. We use similar methods to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2002, the expected HML return is on average 5.1% per annum, consisting of an expected-dividend-growth component of 3.5% and an expected-dividend-to-price component of 1.6%. The ex-ante HML return is also countercyclical: a positive, one-standard-deviation shock to real consumption growth rate lowers this premium by about 0.45%. Unlike the equity premium, there is only mixed evidence suggesting that the value premium has declined over time.
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  • Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:87:y:2008:i:2:p:269-280
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jin (Ginger) & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," Working Paper Series 2010-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. repec:eee:empfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:43-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:portec:v:17:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0132-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Arnold, Marc & Wagner, Alexander F. & Westermann, Ramona, 2013. "Growth options, macroeconomic conditions, and the cross section of credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 350-385.
    5. James Foye, 2015. "A New Perspective on the Size, Value, and Momentum Effects: Broad Sample Evidence from Europe," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 2604415, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Ai, Hengjie & Kiku, Dana, 2013. "Growth to value: Option exercise and the cross section of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 325-349.
    7. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    8. repec:pal:assmgt:v:18:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1057_s41260-017-0048-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chan, Kam Fong & Bowman, Robert G. & Neely, Christopher J., 2017. "Systematic cojumps, market component portfolios and scheduled macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 43-58.
    11. Hernán Ortiz-Molina & Gordon M. Phillips, 2010. "Asset Liquidity and the Cost of Capital," NBER Working Papers 15992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    13. Huseyin Gulen & Yuhang Xing & Lu Zhang, 2011. "Value versus Growth: Time‐Varying Expected Stock Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 381-407, June.
    14. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre, 2013. "A behavioral explanation of the value anomaly based on time-varying return reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2367-2377.
    15. Francesco Chincoli & Massimo Guidolin, 2017. "Linear and nonlinear predictability in investment style factors: multivariate evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(6), pages 476-509, October.
    16. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
    17. Victoria Atanasov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "The Size Effect in Value and Momentum Factors: Implications for the Cross-section of International Stock Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-180/IV/DSF66, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. repec:spr:fininn:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-017-0082-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Docherty, Paul & Chan, Howard & Easton, Steve, 2013. "Can we treat empirical regularities as state variables in the ICAPM? Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 107-124.
    20. Huang, I-Hsiang, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the risk of value strategy: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 404-419, September.
    21. Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "Persistence of ex-ante volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 253-261.
    22. PAOLA BRIGHI & STEFANO d'ADDONA & ANTONIO CARLO FRANCESCO DELLA BINA, 2013. "The Determinants of Risk Premia on the Italian Stock Market: Empirical Evidence on Common Factors in Asset Pricing Models," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 42(2), pages 103-133, July.
    23. Liujing Zeng & Hue Hwa Au Yong & Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Robert Faff, 2014. "Is there a Banking Risk Premium in the US Stock Market?," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 27-42, July.
    24. Chen, Andrew Y., 2014. "Habit, Production, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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