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The Value Spread as a Predictor of Returns

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  • Naiping Lu
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

Recent studies have used the value spread to predict aggregate stock returns to construct cash-flow betas that appear to explain the size and value anomalies. We show that two related variables, the book-to-market spread (the book-to-market of value stocks minus that of growth stocks) and the market-to-book spread (the market-to-book of growth stocks minus that of value stocks) predict returns in different directions and exhibit opposite cyclical variations. Most important, the value spread mixes information on the book-to-market and market-to-book spreads, and appears much less useful in predicting returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Naiping Lu & Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Spread as a Predictor of Returns," NBER Working Papers 11326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Michail Koubouros, 2005. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross-Section of Greek Average Returns," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1611205, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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