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Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence

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  • Guo, Hui
  • Savickas, Robert
  • Wang, Zijun
  • Yang, Jian

Abstract

We uncover a positive stock market risk-return tradeoff after controlling for the covariance of market returns with the value premium. Fama and French (1996) conjecture that the value premium proxies for investment opportunities; therefore, by ignoring it, early specifications suffer from an omitted variable problem that causes a downward bias in the risk-return tradeoff estimation. We also document a positive relation between the value premium and its conditional variance, and the estimated conditional value premium is strongly countercyclical. The latter evidence supports the view that value is riskier than growth in bad times, when the price of risk is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 133-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:01:p:133-154_09
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    Cited by:

    1. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.
    2. repec:kap:fmktpm:v:31:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-017-0293-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Rationalizing the value premium in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 51-70.
    4. ANNAERT, Jan & DE CEUSTER, Marc & VERSTEGEN, Kurt, 2012. "Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence," Working Papers 2012018, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    5. Hwang, Soosung & Rubesam, Alexandre, 2013. "A behavioral explanation of the value anomaly based on time-varying return reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2367-2377.
    6. Huang, Lin & Wang, Zijun, 2014. "Is the investment factor a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities? The US and international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 219-232.
    7. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Zijun Wang, 2010. "Conditional Coskewness in Stock and Bond Markets: Time-Series Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2031-2049, November.
    8. Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "Persistence of ex-ante volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 253-261.
    9. Farooq Malik, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between risk and return," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-40, January.
    10. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    11. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    12. repec:eee:quaeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:314-327 is not listed on IDEAS

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