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Determining the Number of Priced State Variables in the ICAPM

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  • Fama, Eugene F.

Abstract

Suppose the ICAPM governs asset prices and there is a total of S state variables that might be of hedging concern to investors. Can we determine which state variables are, in fact, of hedging concern? What does it mean to say that these state variables are priced, that is, that they give rise to special risk premiums in expected returns? The goal of this paper is to formulate this problem clearly and show when it can and cannot be solved. Ignoring estimation problems, it is possible to find the set of priced state variables when the state variables are identified (named). When we know the number of state variables, but not their names, confident conclusions about even the number of them that produce special risk premiums are probably impossible, unless the number is zero, so the ICAPM collapses to the CAPM.

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  • Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Determining the Number of Priced State Variables in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 217-231, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:33:y:1998:i:02:p:217-231_00
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    1. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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    2. Ball, Ray & Gerakos, Joseph & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nikolaev, Valeri, 2016. "Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 28-45.
    3. Christopher Polk & Samuel Thompson & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "New Forecasts of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 10406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2010. "Macroeconomic risks and characteristic-based factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1383-1399, June.
    5. L'Her, Jean-Francois & Masmoudi, Tarek & Suret, Jean-Marc, 2004. "Evidence to support the four-factor pricing model from the Canadian stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 313-328, October.
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    10. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
    11. Francisco Barillas & Jay Shanken, 2015. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 21771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2003. "International asset allocation: A new perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2203-2230, November.
    13. Maria PASCU-NEDELCU, 2011. "Merton Model For Assessing The Cost Of Capital, Mathematical Amount But Not Also Economic Amount Of Capm And Apt Models," Journal of Doctoral Research in Economics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 47-61, March.
    14. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel & Pisun (Tracy) Xu, 2005. "Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 11020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Brav, Alon & Geczy, Christopher & Gompers, Paul A., 2000. "Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 209-249.
    16. Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Huang, Chia-Wei, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk and share repurchases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 76-82.
    17. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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