IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital

  • LUBOS PÁSTOR
  • MEENAKSHI SINHA
  • BHASKARAN SWAMINATHAN

We argue that the implied cost of capital (ICC), computed using earnings forecasts, is useful in capturing time variation in expected stock returns. First, we show theoretically that ICC is perfectly correlated with the conditional expected stock return under plausible conditions. Second, our simulations show that ICC is helpful in detecting an intertemporal risk-return relation, even when earnings forecasts are poor. Finally, in empirical analysis, we construct the time series of ICC for the G-7 countries. We find a positive relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock returns, at both the country level and the world market level. Copyright (c) 2008 The American Finance Association.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01415.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 63 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2859-2897

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:6:p:2859-2897
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.afajof.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  2. Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
  4. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
  5. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  6. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Andrew B. Abel, 1988. "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 2621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 361, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  9. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
  10. Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. " Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 515-41, June.
  11. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  12. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June.
  13. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Hui Guo & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "Uncovering the risk-return relation in the stock market," Working Papers 2001-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Campbell, John, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data," Scholarly Articles 3221491, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy & Roni Michaely, 2005. "Using Expectations to Test Asset Pricing Models," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 34(3), Fall.
  20. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
  21. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, 04.
  22. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
  23. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. " The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-93, September.
  24. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, 04.
  25. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04.
  26. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  27. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, March.
  28. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W, 1993. "Theoretical Relations between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 177-85, April.
  29. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Whitelaw, Robert F, 2000. "Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 521-47.
  31. Friend, Irwin & Westerfield, Randolph & Granito, Michael, 1978. "New Evidence on the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 903-17, June.
  32. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  33. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
  34. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 462, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:6:p:2859-2897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.