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Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital

  • Lubos Pastor
  • Meenakshi Sinha
  • Bhaskaran Swaminathan

We reexamine the time-series relation between the conditional mean and variance of stock market returns. To proxy for the conditional mean return, we use the implied cost of capital, computed using analyst forecasts. The usefulness of this proxy is shown in simulations. In empirical analysis, we construct the time series of the implied cost of capital for the G-7 countries. We find strong support for a positive intertemporal mean-variance relation at both the country level and the world market level. Some of our evidence is consistent with international integration of the G-7 financial markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11941.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Publication status: published as Pastor, Lubos, Meenakshi Sinha and Bhaskaran Swaminathan. “Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital.” Journal of Finance 63 (2008): 2859–2897.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11941
Note: AP
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