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Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle

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  • Kydland, Finn
  • Rupert, Peter
  • Sustek, Roman

Abstract

Over the U.S. business cycle, fluctuations in residential investment are well known to systematically lead GDP. These dynamics are documented here to be specific to the U.S. and Canada. In other developed economies residential investment is broadly coincident with GDP. Nonresidential investment has the opposite dynamics, being coincident with or lagging GDP. These observations are in sharp contrast with the properties of nearly all business cycle models with disaggregated investment. Including mortgages and interest rate dynamics aligns the theory more closely with U.S. observations. Longer time to build in housing construction makes residential investment coincident with output.

Suggested Citation

  • Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt7bn5k73m
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    2. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    4. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    5. repec:eee:jhouse:v:38:y:2017:i:c:p:38-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    7. Hashmat Khan & Jean-François Rouillard, 2016. "Household Borrowing Constraints and Residential Investment Dynamics," Carleton Economic Papers 16-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2016. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loans requirements: An agent based approach," Working Papers 2016/05, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joël, 2015. "The credit-risk implications of home ownership promotion: The effects of public subsidies and adjustable-rate loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 103-120.
    10. Hashmat U. Khan & Jean-François Rouillard, 2017. "Why Does Household Investment Lead Business Investment over the Business Cycle?: Comment," Cahiers de recherche 17-01, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    11. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, 2013. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.
    13. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    14. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
    15. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    16. Hyunseung Oh & Chamna Yoon, 2016. "Residential construction lags across the US and their implications for housing supply," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00002, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    17. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2015. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loan Contracts, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2015-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Mar 2016.
    18. Millar, Jonathan N. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2016. "Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-89.
    19. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2015. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 751, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Eyigungor, Burcu, 2016. "Housing's Role in the Slow Recovery," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(2), pages 1-6, Q2.
    21. repec:zbw:espost:168348 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    23. Éric Monnet & Clara Wolf, 2017. "Is demographics the housing cycle?," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 41, april..
    24. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9609-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences; residential investment; nonresidential investment; business cycle; mortgages; time to build;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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