IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v93y2009i2p292-324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mortgage timing

Author

Listed:
  • Koijen, Ralph S.J.
  • Hemert, Otto Van
  • Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van

Abstract

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters' data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.

Suggested Citation

  • Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:93:y:2009:i:2:p:292-324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-405X(09)00080-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
    2. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    3. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
    4. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2006. "Can Managers Successfully Time the Maturity Structure of Their Debt Issues?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1731-1758, August.
    5. Berkovec, James A & Kogut, David J & Nothaft, Frank E, 2001. "Determinants of the ARM Share of FHA and Conventional Lending," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-41, January.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January.
    7. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    9. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    10. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    11. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    12. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-392, June.
    13. Antonios Sangvinatsos & Jessica A. Wachter, 2005. "Does the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis Matter for Long-Term Investors?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 179-230, February.
    14. Malcolm Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler *, 2006. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1711-1730, August.
    15. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    16. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    17. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    19. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Underdiversification," 2005 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    21. Eugene F. Fama, 2006. "The Behavior of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 359-379.
    22. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    23. Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2007. "Interest rate derivatives at commercial banks: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1769-1808, September.
    24. Pu Shen & Jonathan Corning, 2001. "Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 61-87.
    25. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    26. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-209, March.
    27. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    28. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    29. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Theo E. Nijman & Bas J. M. Werker, 2010. "When Can Life Cycle Investors Benefit from Time-Varying Bond Risk Premia?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 741-780, February.
    31. van Hemert, Otto, 2006. "Life-Cycle Housing and Portfolio Choice with Bond Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 44, Institute for Financial Research.
    32. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006. "Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
    33. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    34. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    35. Robert Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 16, pages 349-370 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    36. Francis A. Longstaff, 2005. "Borrower Credit and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 619-661, December.
    37. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
    38. Xavier Gabaix & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Olivier Vigneron, 2007. "Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence from the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 557-595, April.
    39. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    40. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
    41. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 12766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    43. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    44. Boudoukh, Jacob, et al, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities in a Multifactor Interest Rate Environment: A Multivariate Density Estimation Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 405-446.
    45. Viral V. Acharya & Jennifer N. Carpenter, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1355-1383.
    46. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    47. James Vickery, 2007. "Interest rates and consumer choice in the residential mortgage market: a summary," Proceedings 1041, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    48. Rui Yao, 2005. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Choices with Risky Housing and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 197-239.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage choice Household finance Bond risk premia;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:93:y:2009:i:2:p:292-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.