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Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

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  • MALCOLM BAKER
  • RYAN TALIAFERRO
  • JEFFREY WURGLER *

Abstract

Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, "Journal of Finance" 58, 483-517) pseudo market-timing bias. Using standard simulation techniques, we find that the bias is much too small to account for the observed predictive power of the equity share in new issues, corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Malcolm Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler *, 2006. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1711-1730, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:4:p:1711-1730
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2015. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 379-431 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pollet, Joshua M. & Wilson, Mungo, 2010. "Average correlation and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 364-380, June.
    3. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    4. Gueorgui I. Kolev, 2008. "Forecasting aggregate stock returns using the number of initial public offerings as a predictor," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(13), pages 1-8.
    5. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
    6. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:6:p:174-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lewis, Craig M. & Tan, Yongxian, 2016. "Debt-equity choices, R&D investment and market timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 599-610.
    8. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2010. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-065, Harvard Business School.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:13:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    11. Butler, Alexander W. & Cornaggia, Jess & Grullon, Gustavo & Weston, James P., 2011. "Corporate financing decisions, managerial market timing, and real investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 666-683, September.
    12. Radu Titus MARINESCU & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Aurelian DIACONU, 2016. "Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Analysis of Investment’s Sensitivity," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(8), pages 37-47, August.
    13. Aktas, Nihat & de Bodt, Eric & Van Oppens, Hervé, 2008. "Legal insider trading and market efficiency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1379-1392, July.
    14. Shu, Pei-Gi & Chiang, Sue-Jane, 2014. "Firm size, timing, and earnings management of seasoned equity offerings," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 177-194.
    15. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2010. "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Papers 15948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Barry, Christopher B. & Mann, Steven C. & Mihov, Vassil & Rodríguez, Mauricio, 2009. "Interest rate changes and the timing of debt issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 600-608, April.
    17. Alan Gregory & Cherif Guermat & Fawaz Al-Shawawreh, 2010. "UK IPOs: Long Run Returns, Behavioural Timing and Pseudo Timing," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 612-647.

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