Can Managers Successfully Time the Maturity Structure of Their Debt Issues?
This paper provides a rational explanation for the apparent ability of managers to successfully time the maturity of their debt issues. We show that a structural break in excess bond returns during the early 1980s generates a spurious correlation between the fraction of long-term debt in total debt issues and future excess bond returns. Contrary to Baker, Taliaferro, and Wurgler (2006) , we show that the presence of structural breaks can lead to nonsense regressions, whether or not there is any small sample bias. Tests using firm-level data further confirm that managers are unable to time the debt market successfully. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.
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Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
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