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The Causal Effect of Mortgage Refinancing on Interest Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Implications

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  • Jefferson Duarte

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of mortgage-backed security (MBS) hedging activity on interest rate volatility and proposes a model that takes these effects into account. An empirical examination suggests that the inclusion of information about MBSs considerably improves model performance in pricing interest rate options and in forecasting future interest rate volatility. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that MBS hedging affects the interest rate volatility implied by both options and the actual interest rate volatility. The results also indicate that the inclusion of information about the MBS universe may result in models that better describe the price of fixed-income securities. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jefferson Duarte, 2008. "The Causal Effect of Mortgage Refinancing on Interest Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1689-1731, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:4:p:1689-1731
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhm062
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    Cited by:

    1. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
    2. Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2016. "Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1220-1253.
    3. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Duyvesteyn, Johan & de Zwart, Gerben, 2015. "Riding the swaption curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 57-75.
    5. Sabrina Pellerin & Steven Sabol & John R. Walter, 2013. "mREITs and their risks," Working Paper 13-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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