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Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Aytek Malkhozov
  • Philippe Mueller
  • Andrea Vedolin
  • Gyuri Venter

Abstract

We study feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions that are strongly supported in the data: (1) MBS duration positively predicts nominal and real excess bond returns, especially for longer maturities; (2) the predictive power of MBS duration is transitory in nature; and (3) MBS convexity increases interest rate volatility, and this effect has a hump-shaped term structure. Received November 10, 2014; accepted December 8, 2015 by Editor Robin Greenwood.

Suggested Citation

  • Aytek Malkhozov & Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Gyuri Venter, 2016. "Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(5), pages 1220-1253.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:5:p:1220-1253.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy," Discussion Papers 1707, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:165-179 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt; Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 14/66, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:pal:imfecr:v:65:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-016-0026-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paul Whelan & Gyuri Venter & Andrea Vedolin & Matteo Leombroni, 2017. "Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve," 2017 Meeting Papers 844, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2016. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 22096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    8. Beltratti, Andrea & Benetton, Matteo & Gavazza, Alessandro, 2017. "The role of prepayment penalties in mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 165-179.
    9. Boyarchenko, Nina & Fuster, Andreas & Lucca, David O., 2014. "Understanding mortgage spreads," Staff Reports 674, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Jun 2018.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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