IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfi/wpaper/2017-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Ozdagli

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Michael Weber

    (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

Abstract

Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on aggregate stock market returns in narrow event windows around press releases by the Federal Open Market Committee. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct (demand) effect and an indirect (network) effect. We attribute 50%-85% of the overall effect to indirect effects. The decomposition is robust to different sample periods, event windows, and types of announcements. Direct effects are larger for industries selling most of the industry output to end-consumers compared to other industries. We find similar evidence of large indirect effects using ex-post realized cash-fundamentals. A simple model with intermediate inputs guides our empirical methodology. Our findings indicate that production networks might be an important propagation mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ozdagli & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," Working Papers 2017-07, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2017-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econresearch.uchicago.edu/sites/econresearch.uchicago.edu/files/No.%202017-07.pdf
    File Function: May 2017 version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    3. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    4. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Working Paper 482151, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    6. Bernard Herskovic, 2015. "Networks in Production: Asset Pricing Implications," 2015 Meeting Papers 378, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Basu, Susanto, 1995. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 512-531, June.
    8. Faust Jon & Swanson Eric T & Wright Jonathan H, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, October.
    9. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    10. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    11. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    12. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    13. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    14. Ozdagli, Ali K., 2014. "Financial frictions and the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    16. Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 249-283.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    18. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Filippo Ippolito & Ali K. Ozdagli & Ander Pérez Orive, 2013. "Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1384, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. repec:aea:aejmac:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:254-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    22. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101464 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    25. Michael Weber & Daniel Hoang & Francesco D'Acunto, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Consumption Expenditure," 2015 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Filippo Ippolito & Ali K. Ozdagli & Ander Perez, 2017. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy through Bank Lending : The Floating Rate Channel," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:19307480 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    29. Saki Bigio & Jennifer La’O, 2016. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," Working Papers 2016-67, Peruvian Economic Association.
    30. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    32. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    33. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    34. Edward Denbee & Christian Julliard & Ye Li & Kathy Yuan, 2014. "Network Risk and Key Players: A Structural Analysis of Interbank Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp734, Financial Markets Group.
    35. Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2013. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," NBER Working Papers 19466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    37. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    38. Carvalho, Vasco M & Grassi, Basile, 2015. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber & Ernesto Pasten, 2016. "Nominal Rigidity and the Idiosyncratic Origin of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 1473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    41. Mu-Jeung Yang & Johannes Wieland, 2015. "Financial Dampening," 2015 Meeting Papers 1022, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. David Baqaee, 2016. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 09-11, April.
    44. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    45. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    46. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 09-11, 04.
    47. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
    48. James P. Lesage, 1997. "Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 20(1-2), pages 113-129, April.
    49. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    50. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2016. "Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 165-199, January.
    51. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    52. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:irv:wpaper:171806 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:wiw:wus005:6003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eksi, Ozan & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-147.
    6. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2017. "The impact of network connectivity on factor exposures, asset pricing and portfolio diversification," SAFE Working Paper Series 166, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    7. Arikan, Cengiz & Yalcin, Yeliz, 2017. "Do The Countries’ Monetary Policies Have Spatial Impact?," MPRA Paper 83407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Lu, Lina, 2017. "Simultaneous Spatial Panel Data Models with Common Shocks," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper RPA 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero, 2017. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 165, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    11. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monetary policy, stock market and sectoral comovement," Working Papers 1731, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Input-output linkages; Spillover effects; Asset prices; High frequency identification;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2017-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Toni Shears). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.