IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2018-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Engin L. Altinoglu

Abstract

I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks, amplifying their aggregate effects by about 30 percent. To calibrate the model, I construct a proxy of inter-industry credit flows from firm- and industry-level data. I then estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to industries in the US and find that financial shocks are a prominent driver of cyclical fluctuations, accounting for two-thirds of the drop in industrial production during the Great Recession. Furthermore, idiosyncratic financial shocks to a few key industries can explain a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Engin L. Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-31
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2018031pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    3. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    4. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Mian, Shehzad L & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1992. "Accounts Receivable Management Policy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 169-200, March.
    7. Stella, Andrea, 2015. "Firm dynamics and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 71-88.
    8. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    9. Claudio Raddatz, 2010. "Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 985-1003, November.
    10. Miguel Cardoso-Lecourtois, 2004. "Chain Reactions, Trade Credit and the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 331, Econometric Society.
    11. Vicente Cuñat, 2007. "Trade Credit: Suppliers as Debt Collectors and Insurance Providers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 491-527.
    12. Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    2. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," 2018 Meeting Papers 626, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    3. Saki Bigio & Jennifer La’O, 2020. "Distortions in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(4), pages 2187-2253.
    4. Saki Bigio & Jennifer La’O, 2020. "Distortions in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(4), pages 2187-2253.
    5. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    9. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman & Emmanuel Dhyne, 2019. "Imperfect competition in firm-to-firm trade," Working Paper Research 363, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Hsuan-Li Su, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages," 2019 Meeting Papers 978, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Molnarova, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2021. "Technology, demand, and productivity: what an industry model tells us about business cycles," IHS Working Paper Series 29, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    16. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Working Paper 19-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    18. Molnarova, Zuzana & Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2016. "Business Cycles and the Propagation of Shocks in the Input-Output Network," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145804, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Jiangtao FU & Petr MATOUS & TODO Yasuyuki, 2018. "Trade Credit in Global Supply Chains," Discussion papers 18049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Credit network; Financial frictions; Great recession; Input-output network; Trade credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.