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Deconstructing monetary policy surprises: the role of information shocks

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  • Jarociński, Marek
  • Karadi, Peter

Abstract

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions. JEL Classification: E32, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Jarociński, Marek & Karadi, Peter, 2018. "Deconstructing monetary policy surprises: the role of information shocks," Working Paper Series 2133, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182133
    Note: 400529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2019. "The global capital flows cycle: structural drivers and transmission channels," Working Paper Series 2280, European Central Bank.
    4. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    5. Corsetti, G. & Lafarguette, R. & Mehl, A., 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1970, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 61, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Simone Auer & Marco Bernardini & Martina Cecioni, 2019. "Corporate Leverage and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1258, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    9. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Working Paper Series 2355, European Central Bank.
    10. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    11. Jochen Güntner, 2020. "Central bank information and private-sector Expectations," Economics working papers 2020-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel," Working Papers Series 518, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    14. Andrejs Zlobins, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2019/03, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    16. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, 2019. "Monetary policy surprises and employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel," BIS Working Papers 799, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters’ expectations and expectations uncertainty," Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    21. Ferrando, Annalisa & Vermeulen, Philip & Durante, Elena, 2020. "Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2390, European Central Bank.
    22. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank private information; high-frequency identification; monetary policy shock; structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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