IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12765.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Jarocinski, Marek
  • Karadi, Peter

Abstract

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression estimated on both US and euro area data. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarocinski, Marek & Karadi, Peter, 2018. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12765
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2018. "One money, many markets: a factor model approach to monetary policy in the Euro Area with high-frequency identification," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87182, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    4. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    5. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2018. "Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Paper Series WP-2018-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2016. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 77608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Philippe Andrade & Filippo Ferroni, 2016. "Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1216, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Paper Series 2017-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 02 Jan 2018.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Private Information; High-Frequency Identification; Monetary Policy Shock; structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.