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Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks

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  • Jarocinski, Marek
  • Karadi, Peter

Abstract

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression estimated on both US and euro area data. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarocinski, Marek & Karadi, Peter, 2018. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises - The Role of Information Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Private Information; High-Frequency Identification; Monetary Policy Shock; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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