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Decomposing the Effects of Monetary Policy Using an External Instruments SVAR

Listed author(s):
  • Lakdawala, Aeimit

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long-term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 78254.

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Date of creation: Nov 2016
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78254
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  1. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
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  19. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen & Adair Morse & Anna Cieslak, 2015. "Stock returns over the FOMC cycle," 2015 Meeting Papers 1197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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