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Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015

Author

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  • Stephen Hansen
  • Michael McMahon

Abstract

We explore how the multi-dimensional aspects of information released by the FOMC has effects on both market and real economic variables. Using tools from computational linguistics, we measure the information released by the FOMC on the state of economic conditions, as well as the guidance the FOMC provides about future monetary policy decisions. Employing these measures within a FAVAR framework, we find that shocks to forward guidance are more important than the FOMC communication of current economic conditions in terms of their effects on market and real variables. Nonetheless, neither communication has particularly strong effects on real economic variables.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13662
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    2. Carlos Viana de Carvalho & EriC Hsu & Fernanda Necchio, 2016. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy," Textos para discussão 649, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    3. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
    4. Joaquin Iglesias & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2017. "How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey," Working Papers 17/24, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jochen Lüdering & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "Monetary Policy on Twitter and its Effect on Asset Prices: Evidence from Computational Text Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201612, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C. N., 2017. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2017. "The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers 11902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Pongsak Luangaram & Warapong Wongwachara, 2017. "More Than Words: A Textual Analysis of Monetary Policy Communication," PIER Discussion Papers 54, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2017.
    10. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    11. Yusuke Oshima & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2018. "Monetary Policy Communication of the Bank of Japan: Computational Text Analysis," Discussion Papers 1816, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    12. Lino Wehrheim, 2017. "Economic History Goes Digital: Topic Modeling the Journal of Economic History," Working Papers 177, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    13. repec:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:1:p:2-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    15. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank," Working Papers No 6/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
    17. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial asset prices in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(3), pages 263-294.
    18. Shapiro, Adam Hale & Sudhof, Moritz & Wilson, Daniel J., 2017. "Measuring News Sentiment," Working Paper Series 2017-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Michael Ehrmann & Jonathan Talmi, 2016. "Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 16-37, Bank of Canada.
    20. Araujo, Luiz Nelson, 2016. "Dissemination of Information by the Federal Reserve System: An Overview and Benchmark," MPRA Paper 73185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2017. "A Structural Topic Model of the Features and the Cultural Origins of Bacon's Ideas," CESifo Working Paper Series 6443, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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