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The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure

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  • Jonas E. Arias
  • Dario Caldara
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez

Abstract

Following Leeper, Sims, and Zha (1996), we identify monetary policy shocks in SVARs by restricting the systematic component of monetary policy. In particular, we impose sign and zero restrictions only on the monetary policy equation. Since we do not restrict the response of output to a monetary policy shock, we are agnostic in Uhlig's (2005) sense. But, in contrast to Uhlig (2005), our results support the conventional view that a monetary policy shock leads to a decline in output. Hence, our results show that the contractionary effects of monetary policy shocks do not hinge on questionable exclusion restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas E. Arias & Dario Caldara & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2015. "The Systematic Component of Monetary Policy in SVARs: An Agnostic Identification Procedure," International Finance Discussion Papers 1131, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1131
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2015.1131
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVARs; Monetary policy shocks; Systematic component of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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