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Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

  • Mönch, Emanuel
  • Uhlig, Harald

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of NBER and CEPR.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4377.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4377
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  16. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Sabine Stephan, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods and the Determination of Turning Points of the EMU Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 399-415.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, August.
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  22. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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